Until a few weeks ago, though, Macron didn’t look like he was in trouble. In fact, his handling of the war in Ukraine had significantly boosted his standing at home. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Macron’s first-round polling numbers jumped from the mid-20s to around 30 percent, as he earned plaudits for his diplomatic efforts to halt the Russian invasion, and when that failed, praise for his tough stance toward Russia both militarily and economically. Tellingly, his numbers hit 60 percent in some head-to-head surveys against Le Pen ahead of a possible runoff. However, as the war in Ukraine has dragged on, Macron’s bump has dissipated — in fact, he’s slipped below where he was prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the chart below shows.

It’s not really clear why Macron’s numbers have dropped so dramatically, as he still enjoys relatively high support for his handling of foreign policy. Part of it could have to do with low marks for his attempts to liberalize France’s economy, including making it easier for companies to lay off workers and lowering business taxes, which haven’t been popular. Some critics have called him “the candidate of the rich,” and moves like getting rid of the wealth tax and reducing social spending assistance have played into that. And Macron’s policies have resulted in populist outcry before, as a proposed gas tax hike in 2018 led to nationwide protests in what became known as the Yellow Vest Movement. Now his campaign is pushing the unpopular position of raising the retirement age, which may also explain why the race between him and Le Pen has narrowed.