So how much do Russians support the invasion, and do people tell the truth when asked? The bar plots in Figure 2 below show the level of support as assessed by both the direct question and the list experiment. When asked directly, 68% of our respondents stated that they personally supported the war – a two-thirds majority. However, when using the list experiment to assess the support for the invasion, this share drops significantly, to 53%. In other words, when allowed to reveal their true private preferences, only a simple majority of respondents supports the war. This difference of 15 percentage points is highly statistically significant, meaning that it is extremely unlikely to be the result of chance. Russians, at least those in our sample, clearly hide their true attitudes towards the war.
Do Russians tell the truth when they say they support the war in Ukraine?
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