Germany is extremely ill-prepared for this worst-case scenario. A “Gas Emergency Plan for the Republic of Germany” has been in place since September 2019. But it is based on a fundamental miscalculation: In the very first pages, it states that the natural gas supply situation in Germany is “highly secure and reliable.” And that the likelihood of a massive supply crisis is “very low.”

The plan is clearly not designed for an emergency of this magnitude. The document contains a rough graduation of who should be given supply priority in the event of supply shortages: consumers and critical infrastructure. Industry would be the first segment to see its gas rationed.

But there’s a problem with that: Which companies are so important in terms of supplies that they would need to keep producing? And which ones are unable to throttle their plants for technical reasons? Whose products are dispensable? The emergency plan does not provide answers to these questions, even though they are crucial for Germany’s economy and security. “We’re all doing this for the first time,” says a senior official with an association representing industry.