Sergei Pugachyov, a banker and ex-associate of Putin who has fallen out with him, said on April 1 that Putin’s inner circle supports the aggression against Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Gudkov said that the war has a lot of support within the FSB, and a coup would be extremely risky.

“Any suspicion about disloyalty or intrigue may lead to death,” he said.

Sazonov also believes that a coup is unlikely. The political system remains internally stable, and the economy has so far suffered less than expected, he said.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has prompted the population’s consolidation around the Kremlin, and many people blame economic and other problems on the West rather than on Putin, Sazonov said.