Most important, who will guarantee Russia’s compliance—or compel it if need be? Zelensky’s wish list of potential enforcers has variously included Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Poland, and Turkey. Yet given the ferocity and abandon that Russia has demonstrated, along with Putin’s threat to meet any intervention with a reaction the “likes of which you have never seen in history”—a transparent hint at using nuclear weapons—these countries have responded tepidly at best to Zelensky’s invitation to go to war with Russia if it violates a peace deal with Ukraine.
Without an international security guarantee for Ukraine, is there any doubt that Russia will interpret a peace agreement as the right to meddle aggressively in Ukraine’s politics and seek to reorient the Ukrainian economy toward Russia?
The invasion, with its wanton assault on Ukrainian cities and industrial base and massacre of Ukrainians, is likely just the first step in Putin’s long-term systematic demoralization and depredation of its neighbor. The ultimate aim is submitting the country to Russian control.
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