Now, if the race proved to be closer, and/or if another GOP contender — say, state Sen. Anthony Bouchard — took more of the anti-Cheney vote from Hageman, perhaps crossover voters could make the difference for Cheney. Let’s say Hageman is up, with 42 percent to Cheney’s 37 percent among registered Republicans, while Bouchard sits at 15 percent (and other candidates win the remaining 6 percent). In that case, Cheney would trail by about 5,500 votes, or about 30 percent of the total number of Democratic primary votes in 2018. It’s not out of the question that the red-hot spotlight on Cheney’s race could encourage significant crossover voting among Democrats, especially if there isn’t much happening in the Democratic primary. Things could play out that way, considering so far no notable Democrats have declared in Wyoming’s races for the House or governor (neither of Wyoming’s U.S. Senate seats are up in 2022).

But this still means that Cheney must remain competitive among Republicans to even allow for a scenario where crossover voters could conceivably put her over the top. Granted, she has a huge financial edge — at the end of 2021, Cheney had raised $7.2 million to Hageman’s $745,000 — which the incumbent can use to damage Hageman and play up her conserative bonafides. And Cheney’s wealthy backers might also look to raise the profile of one of the other anti-Cheney contenders in the hopes of fragmenting her opposition. (Promoting another candidate for your benefit is a dark campaign art practiced by past vulnerable incumbents, although usually by trying to influence the other party’s primary.) However, even if Cheney’s allies wanted to go that route, the most obvious choice for prospective assistance looks to be toxic: Bouchard, the state senator, has seen his fundraising dry up after Hageman’s entry into the race and revelations that he impregnated a 14-year-old girl when he was 18 years old.