The stunning stalemate has led to an inflection point in the conflict. Though officials are not giving out hope for a possible negotiated effort to end the war, President Joe Biden’s administration has expressed deep skepticism that Russian President Vladimir Putin harbors any intent of reducing the violence. Instead, there is a growing belief among U.S. officials that it may need to hold together its Western alliance — and prepare its citizens — for a war that could last for the foreseeable future.

“This is shaping up to be a real decision point for the administration,” said Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO. “I don’t know what they’re going to do, but I do know the consequences if they don’t act.”

The ability of Ukrainian forces to fend off the Russian invasion has at once pleasantly surprised the administration and forced it to rapidly adjust its approach to ending the conflict. Questions over how to punish the Kremlin have turned into debates over what kind of Russia could or even should emerge at the end of the war.