But Russia’s initial struggles do not mean that it will lose this war. Putin seems to have shifted from seeking regime change to a strategy of imposing costs; by inflicting ever-greater pain and suffering on Ukraine, he seeks to force Zelensky to accept his terms for peace, including the recognition of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states. Russia can still snatch victory—defined this way, at least—from the jaws of defeat over the coming weeks and months. It would doubtless be a brutal, bloody, and ultimately Pyrrhic victory, but the Russian military, even after suffering the losses it has suffered, still has the capacity to achieve it.

Should Putin attain peace on his terms after a long, bludgeoning campaign, it would constitute a significant strategic setback for the United States. A long war that sees him prevail would also cause dramatically more death and destruction in Ukraine, accelerating mass displacement and emigration that might overwhelm neighboring countries, spark humanitarian disasters, and ignite political crises in the European Union. The risk of the Russia-Ukraine war becoming a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States and its allies, which combined possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, will remain elevated as long as the fighting continues. The regional and global economic consequences of the conflict will multiply, perhaps sparking a major worldwide recession.

To avoid these outcomes, a negotiated end to the war is urgently needed.