Rural voters playing outsized role in battleground House races

As former Montana Gov. Steve Bullock warned in The New York Times: “The Democrats are in trouble in rural America, and their struggles there could doom the party in 2022.” He urged Democrats to “show up, listen, and respect voters in rural America” by finding common ground instead of talking down to them. A good start would be to spend time investing into the pivotal competitive House races taking place there.

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While many pundits may assume that a focus on rural America is synonymous with catering to the interests of white working-class voters, the reality is that the rural House battlegrounds are remarkably diverse. Four of the toss-up seats have predominantly Hispanic populations, serving as a reminder that working-class Hispanics have been drifting away from the Democratic Party in recent years. A couple of potentially competitive seats rated as “likely Democratic”—Georgia’s 2nd District and North Carolina’s 1st District—were drawn to elect Black members of Congress. If Republicans pull off an upset there, it will be a result of the party being able to make some inroads with African American voters in the rural Southern Black Belt.

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