How Ukraine could lose land but still win the war with Russia

During peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday, the Russians and Ukrainians seemed to concede to realities on the ground. Deputy Russian Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin pledged that Moscow would “drastically, by multiples, reduce military activity” around Kyiv — a promise U.S. officials said they would believe when they see. Ukraine’s side, meanwhile, outlined a deal in which they would maintain the kind of military neutrality sought by Moscow in exchange for security guarantees from Kyiv’s international partners.

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The Ukrainians, for the first time, also offered to refrain from trying to retake Crimea, whose status, they said, could become the subject of 15-year talks. The future of the occupied areas in the east, the Ukrainians added, could be discussed in separate negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

That suggests an acknowledgment by Ukraine that it may not remain entirely whole. Yet any outcome that restricts Russian gains to Crimea and parts of Donbas would still be seen as a Ukrainian victory — giving Putin a little more than he had before the invasion.

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