Some White House officials have told advocates it’s conceivable that some care economy initiatives could get through the Senate separately from reconciliation, by garnering 60 votes. Likewise, a person familiar with Manchin’s thinking told Playbook on Monday night he still sees that path as plausible for some of the care agenda items. (Though it’s hard to find many other Democrats who’d agree with him.)

But Manchin — and this is the critical part — is unlikely to sign off on any reconciliation bill that includes the care items, the person said, something the senator himself has made pretty clear.

The response: Progressive groups know what they’re up against and are responding accordingly. Aside from the letter, the liberal group First Five Action Fund is releasing new polling today on the popularity of care economy items, while cutting ads poised to pressure Democrats. The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Hart Research Associates and New Bridge Strategy, questioned voters in a number of swing states with Democratic senators, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia and, naturally, West Virginia.