The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.

While the curve isn’t inverted yet, it’s getting close. That shouldn’t be particularly surprising, given how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and its economic ramifications — continue to weigh heavily on the global economy.