Separately, Russia is sure to insist that any peace agreement includes sanctions relief. But if that agreement includes territorial concessions, the NATO allies may be reluctant to end their economic war on Russia. Nations on the alliance’s eastern flank have argued that should Putin gain anything from his war in Ukraine, his appetite for imperial expansion will only grow. In such a circumstance, facilitating the reconstruction of Russia’s war machine through trade normalization will be a tough pill for Poles, Estonians, and hawkish members of the U.S. Congress to swallow.
Thus, there is a little hope for an imminent diplomatic resolution of the conflict. And there is little prospect of a military one either. Ukraine has arrested Russia’s progress toward Kyiv, but Putin’s army is making gradual gains in the Donbas. A war of attrition looms.
Each side has cause for believing it will gain leverage through a protracted conflict. Ukraine’s forces are fighting for their nation’s existence; Russia’s are merely fighting for a single sociopath’s wounded pride. And the former have already put a dent in the Russian army’s manpower and morale. Yet Russia retains overwhelming military advantages. And Ukraine’s unexpected martial strength rests on a crumbling foundation.
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