The success of lockdowns remains a mystery

We see similar concerns raised in the context of the lockdown study – “lockdown” is a very vague term, and amounted to the implementation of very different sets of policies in different specific countries. Because multiple mitigation policies were implemented at the same time, it is difficult to isolate one and get a precise idea of its effects. There were also vast differences concerning how policies were enforced. Other variables, like shifting immunity due to infection or vaccination and the emergence of variants are confounding factors. Other factors like demographic differences between countries may have a large impact on the efficacy of measures in preventing deaths. And there might be an issue with determining the arrow of causation, as particularly hard-hit countries may be more prone to lock down, thus leading to lockdowns being correlated with more deaths. All this is to say that coming to a general conclusion to “lockdowns, yes or no?” might not be possible – various contextual factors are pivotal in trying to get a handle on this question.