Before you get on your high horse about how dumb the survey respondents were, consider this: Of the 50 largest cities, the one with the most nationally representative proportion of black residents — a perfect match at 12.4 percent exactly — is Omaha. Most people probably think of Nebraska as having an overwhelmingly white population, and it does: 78.4 percent of Nebraskans identified as white alone, and only 4.9 percent identified as black alone. But 62.4 percent of Nebraska’s black population lives within Omaha city limits.
Other large cities with nationally representative proportions of black residents also may seem unexpected: Las Vegas, Long Beach, and Wichita. Oklahoma City’s proportion of black residents is much closer to the national average than New York City’s is.
The better statistical reasoning would go like this: African Americans are highly likely to live in cities. Many cities have black populations around 20 or 30 percent. Therefore, let’s guess 10 or 15 percent for the national average. Alternatively, if you live in Omaha and know that about 12 percent of your city’s residents are black, that’s a solid guess for the national average because Nebraska has such a high proportion of white residents to begin with.
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