This is where Europe has an opportunity because it enjoys a moment of maximum strategic value to China. The war is a growing liability, China is openly aligned with the aggressor and, most importantly, Beijing has concluded that the US-China relationship has transitioned to a long-term rivalry. In this equation, Europe is the key geopolitical swing vote. By contrast, China has long undervalued Europe as a global power centre, believing it has neutralised the continent via EU-China economic ties and divide-and-conquer strategies. Now is the time to change that, but the message from European capitals must be sharp, clear and unified.

For Beijing, a future in which the US and major European powers — together with Asian allies — are aligned against China is a decidedly detrimental one. European leaders’ message to Beijing must be two-fold. The first is that China will be the target of opprobrium and sanctions if it arms Russia. Europe should also push China to increase humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainians and call publicly for a halt to Russia’s strikes on civilian targets.

The second message is a strategic one. Europe and the US need to emphasise their view that Vladimir Putin’s actions will create global disorder and a new type of cold war. This undermines the international structures that facilitated China’s rise. Europe must press China to recalibrate its relationship with Russia — at least put a ceiling on it — or risk all it has accomplished in the reform era.