Sanctions on Russia in general and bans on the import of Russian gas in particular are pushing up energy costs, which increases the cost of all other goods. As of last year, Russia was the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas, the second-biggest exporter of crude oil, and the third-biggest exporter of coal. “Affordability is already deteriorating, and security and reliability are faltering,” argues Ryan Severino, the chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle, a global real-estate and investment firm. “In the short run, this means consumers will simply pay higher prices for whatever energy they can obtain for their immediate needs.”

At the same time, the invasion has cut Europe off from its bread basket: Ukrainian wheat, corn, and sunflower oil are no longer leaving its Black Sea ports. As a result, wheat futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped the maximum allowed each of the first five days of March; they are now up about 40 percent from before the invasion. Even if Russia were to withdraw from Ukraine shortly, those price increases would probably persist. The war is disrupting the harvest cycle and damaging Ukraine’s shipping infrastructure, and the West is likely to maintain sanctions on Russia for years.

How to slow inflation down? Policy makers have two options: slashing demand and increasing supply. As for the former, the Federal Reserve bumped up interest rates this week. There are 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person, Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, noted at a press conference. “That’s a very, very tight labor market, tight to an unhealthy level, I would say,” he said. “We’re trying to better align demand and supply.”