To start, it’s no secret why Trump is so effective at getting so many Republicans to clap like trained seals. Trump has demonstrated an incredible amount of allegiance among the Republican base, and any Republican who wants a future in politics is reticent to risk alienating those voters.

Thus, even if Trump does not run, he will cast a shadow on the 2024 election. Any viable Republican candidates will be eagerly jockeying for his approval in the primary. Whether or not he still holds the amount of sway over the party’s voters that he once did, no ambitious candidate will be willing to risk being overly critical of him. And in the general election, that candidate will have to strike a delicate balance between appeasing Trump and appealing to a broader electorate. While Governor Glenn Youngkin was able to walk this tightrope in Virginia, it will be a lot harder for Trump to avoid the national spotlight than it was for him to steer clear of a gubernatorial race in a state he lost badly.

However, were another Republican to defeat Trump, it would disrupt this entire narrative. Suddenly, somebody else will have shown that it’s possible for a Republican to go up against Trump, and not only survive, but win. Or, to put it in the immortal words of pro wrestler Ric Flair, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man.”

A primary would also provide a built-in opportunity for the eventual nominee to create some distance from Trump in the general election.