Kemp also holds a significant financial advantage over Perdue, who has struggled to translate the Trump endorsement into campaign dollars. Trump will campaign for Perdue on March 26, in what may amount to a last-ditch attempt to revive the former senator’s flagging fortunes. Perdue’s first ad featured a direct-to-camera appeal from Trump urging voters to support his candidacy.

“Trump’s no longer president. People’s attention is shifting to how bad Joe Biden is, not the last election. And time heals a lot of wounds,” said the Kemp adviser. “Trump’s also spread himself pretty thin here. He’s done everything but endorse people for dogcatcher here and in states across the country.”

The trajectory of the Alabama Senate primary is also defying the early conventional wisdom. Despite securing an early endorsement from Trump, Brooks has struggled in the race against two other credible GOP contenders. A new poll from Trump pollster McLaughlin and Associates, commissioned by the Alabama Forestry Association, found Brooks slipping into a distant third-place finish with just 18 percent of the vote. Retired Army officer Michael Durant, who is largely self-funding his campaign, pulled into the lead with 34 percent, with Katie Britt, the longtime aide to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, tallying 32 percent. Other polling, conducted earlier, suggests a close three-way primary. If no one wins 50 percent of the vote—a likely outcome—the race heads to a June runoff.