Russia has, thus far, remained unexpectedly restrained in responding — at least publicly — to the West’s involvement in the war in Ukraine. We have not seen significant retaliatory measures for the incoming aid, we have not yet seen the expected widespread cyberattacks against NATO or the United States and we have not seen the conflict expanded beyond Ukraine’s borders. To be sure, Russia has rattled the nuclear sabre, is threatening to nationalize foreign companies and is continuing its campaign of disinformation, all of which is unsurprising (and represents the limited tools Moscow still possesses). That restraint is unlikely to last, and there is a chance that the West in its over-correcting zeal risks crossing an unseen red line. It may already be encroaching on that red line: Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Rybakov, said Moscow “warned the U.S. that pumping weapons from a number of countries it orchestrates isn’t just a dangerous move, it’s an action that makes those convoys legitimate targets.”

This is not to say that the West should suspend its aid to Ukraine, but it must be very cautious and very calculated in how it proceeds. Author Herman Kahn defined escalation as a ladder, the climbing of which presents policymakers with new decisions and new calculus at each rung. But there is also the risk of an escalation slide, the acceleration of which becomes increasingly hard to slow or stop. To avoid this, the West and Russia must be abundantly clear with one another and communicate at the highest levels. The West must be very cautious in how it proceeds in its aid Kyiv.