Putin's colossal intelligence failure

Besides Ukraine’s “neutrality,” Putin has defined his objectives as “denazification” and “demilitarization,” denying any plans to occupy the country. Given the level of Ukrainian resistance, what is Putin’s exit strategy? When does the Kremlin declare victory and bring the troops home? There are no clear or good options.

Putin’s colossal intelligence failure lies in his inability to grasp the country that Ukraine has become in thirty years of independence. Despite their closeness to Russia in language, culture, and religion, Ukrainians as a people, regardless of their ethnic roots, have forged a distinct civic identity. Three people-power revolutions—the 1991 independence movement, the 2004–05 Orange Revolution, and the 2013–14 Revolution of Dignity—have taught Ukrainians to stand up for their rights and take their fate into their own hands. When Putin first unleashed the dogs of war on eastern Ukraine, ordinary Ukrainians volunteered not only to fight but to supply and sustain their army. Ukraine’s central government may be weak, but the solidarity within Ukrainian society only grows stronger in the face of adversity.

The fundamental difference between Ukraine and Russia today is that Ukrainians have become citizens of their own country, while Russians remain subjects of their ruler.

Putin’s misreading of Ukrainians as agents of their own destiny will lead to defeat. Morally, he has already lost the war, and a victory on the battlefield will prove to be Pyrrhic. Even with a massive occupation force, Putin will never be able to impose his will on Ukraine.