I can imagine two weak arguments in favor of retaining mandates for toddlers while dropping them for kids 5 and up. One is that hospitalization rates are higher for the 0-to-4 group than for the 5–19 age group. Both groups, however, are at lower risk than most adults. And besides, the comparison is flawed because the higher rates in the 0-to-4 group are driven by children younger than 1, who are more likely to be hospitalized for COVID and in general—and who are not required to wear masks.

A second argument is that the under-5 cohort is ineligible for vaccines. That’s true, but the dropping of mandates for older kids is not typically dependent on vaccination rates or individual vaccination status. In New York, less than half of the 5-to-11 group is vaccinated. An unvaccinated 5-year-old girl can attend school without a mask, but her unvaccinated 3-year-old sister cannot.

Official policies that treat toddlers differently from older kids are—to put it mildly—puzzling. Moreover, masking may not even make much of a difference for viral spread in child-care settings. Studying this question is difficult because researchers have struggled to distinguish the effects of masking from other variables, but a recent study out of Spain provides some clues.