Is the west ready for the consequences of economic war with Russia?

But the West’s response is no longer just pressure — it’s financial war. As opposed to previous sanctions campaigns, which sought to use pressure over time to bring a country to the table or prompt a longer-term behavior change, the goal of these Russia sanctions is to change military strategy in a war that is already happening.

Can financial pressure force a leader bent on war to alter battle plans — a decision that would need to play out in days, not months or years? Can the U.S. and its partners wreak enough havoc on the Russian economy in time to make war unsustainable? No one can answer that.

Never have sanctions played out like they are right now, a high-stakes gamble over European security, in real time, through financial and economic means. The moves are all the more surprising given that the Biden administration telegraphed a more restrained approach to sanctions when it first came into office.

Ultimately, the Biden administration’s choices may prove to be a make-or-break scenario for the use of financial and economic levers in national security. Failure to forestall Russia’s aggressions — or to prevent serious ripple effects in the global economy — will signal that even the strongest of U.S. sanctions cannot direct a political or military outcome. Policymakers may need to reconsider a tool that has assumed a central role in government decision-making, but could lose its legitimacy if the current gamble fails.