Strategists in both parties generally agree that the same three dynamics have ground down Biden’s standing with independents, though they differ on the relative emphasis they place on each.

• One is ideological backlash. “I keep coming back to the idea that he ran as a centrist and he’s governed as a progressive and he’s betrayed the electorate, particularly in Arizona,” says Charles Coughlin, a Republican public relations and political consultant in the state.

• The second is doubts about Biden’s personal capacity for the job, measured in those recent surveys showing that roughly three-fifths of independents say they do not consider him a strong leader.

• To both parties, though, probably the key driver of his decline is dissatisfaction with the country’s overall direction, particularly on inflation, the lingering disruptions created by the coronavirus and, particularly in larger cities, crime and homelessness.