Nothing is impossible in a crisis of this scale. But for now, the result is less likely to be an elite coup or popular revolt than it is a dramatic ramping up of repression to smother critical voices and maintain the illusion of overwhelming popular support. In fact, this is already under way, in a display of short-term thinking from a system that is out of options, with no party loyalty or ideology to fall back on and its social pact in tatters. The question is how long that can last.

Putin still holds the primary instruments of control. For one, that’s a firm grip on the message that reaches the vast majority of Russians, making it easier to sell the current cataclysm as an attack on Russia, directing popular anger toward the West — not the Kremlin. State television is providing wall-to-wall Putin-friendly coverage, with angry pundits berating “Nazis” in Ukraine or curated news bulletins that avoid mentioning a “war” or any Russian losses. In overdrive, Moscow has silenced even long-tolerated opposition voices like liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy, which has broadcast for over three decades, and imposed a strict censorship law that has prompted even Western outlets to suspend work on the ground. There’s a tight rein on social media, particularly dangerous given how many families have direct ties to Ukraine, and how loud the voices of soldiers’ mothers can be. Russians are turning to VPNs and short wave radios — but only some.