Q. Do you see a likely scenario where Putin can now retreat and retain power? Or has he stumbled into a trap where he must keep fighting this war in an attempt to save his dictatorship and himself?

A. My personal opinion is that Putin’s days are numbered. Putin has attempted maximalist goals – conquer all of Ukraine and pacify the population. He will not achieve these goals. Putin is a strongman who is demonstrating that he is not very strong. His only leverage against the West is nuclear war. However, he cannot push the red button on his own. He requires many subordinates to execute his orders. They are not likely interested in a war of nuclear annihilation that Putin started for no reason. He is also afraid and isolated, as demonstrated by the distance he puts between himself and others at a table. It’s hard for me to believe that someone so scared is willing to die in a nuclear holocaust. Having said all this, the risks are high, and that is why the U.S. and the West are taking a measured and restrained approach. Creatively thinking about off-ramps and engaging intermediaries, like the Israelis, is the smart and rational approach.