Democrats' problem with Hispanic voters isn't going away

All told, 27% of the Texans who voted Tuesday in the 16 most Hispanic counties cast a ballot in the Republican primary. This may not seem like a lot but consider that in 2018, just 15% of those who voted in either the Democratic or Republican primary cast a ballot on the Republican side.

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In Starr County, 24% of primary votes were cast on the Republican side Tuesday. It was basically nothing in 2018, with a mere 0.2% of primary votes being cast on the Republican side. That’s a 24-point shift.

Compare this with what happened statewide in Texas this year. There was slight movement toward Republicans: Of the votes cast on the Democratic or Republican side, 65% were Republican primary votes. In 2018, it was 60%. This was a 4-point shift without rounding.

Put another way, the shift in Republican primary participation in those 16 heavily Hispanic counties was nearly three times the statewide shift.

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