According to Umang Gupta, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, the typical flight time between Europe and Asia is about 11.8 hours, and 13.5 hours flying the reverse leg.

“In a best-case scenario, more than two hours of flight time will be added in each direction,” Gupta told Axios. The roundtrip fuel burn would increase by more than 20%, he said, and that’s for the most fuel-efficient wide body aircraft flying today, such as the Boeing 787-9 or Airbus A350-900.

“At today’s oil prices of around $100/bbl, this will translate into nearly $25,000 of additional expenditure for the airline round trip,” Gupta said. To cover costs, airlines would need to increase fares by more than $120 for a round trip ticket.

“Several US carriers also use Russian airspace to fly to Asia and will have to look for alternative longer routes, or perhaps even consider ‘tech stops’ to refuel, reduce passenger capacity or cargo on board,” he said.