Xi and the CCP have quickly been forced to reconcile with this new reality—and with how thoroughly the world supports Ukraine. By necessity, their attitude toward Russia’s invasion has shifted. Xi has called for Putin to end the crisis through negotiation. He is undoubtedly rethinking any move to take Taiwan by force—a clear motivator behind Xi’s initial greenlight to Russia…

While NATO allies squeeze Russian oligarchs, China is now making Russian finance of commodities more difficult. Developments haven’t unfolded as China anticipated, meaning the CCP no longer wants to appear as the central supporter of an international pariah—Vladimir Putin. China is looking at the sanctions placed on Russia and calculating how devastating they would be to the Chinese economy.

The CCP is certainly willing to take some pain to absorb Taiwan. However, the Zelensky Model enhances the probability of prolonged and bloody resistance by the Taiwanese should Xi eventually invade—and shows the mettle that could be brought by Taiwan’s Western defenders. A firm rebuke of China by both the Taiwanese people, the United States and their allies would undermine Xi’s ultimate objectives.