In Putin, analysts see a leader on edge, fueled by paranoia after underestimating the unified resolve of the West, and at risk of lashing out when he feels cornered. Those concerns have led some policymakers to repeatedly note that NATO will not intervene in the war lest there be any doubt in Putin’s mind…

“We ask a lot of our intelligence colleagues these days [about] Putin’s mind-set,” said a U.S. administration official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions. “We understand that he has been isolated during covid and is surrounded by ‘yes men.’ Everyone is looking for fissures when it comes to his grip on power, but we’re not seeing any significant cracks.”…

“We’ve all seen the images of Putin and the physical distance between him and those around him,” the official said, remarking on photos of Putin sitting several feet from his advisers at a long table. “In some ways that could be a metaphor of what’s taking place.”…

“We need to manage the escalatory risk,” said one European official. “Putin is not doing well. He’s shouting at staff. His war is behind schedule. This is a dangerous time for Putin.”