Along the way, Putin’s inner circle only got tighter. Rather than schmooze with the oligarchs, he gathered increasingly around only the hard-line nationalists out of the intelligence and security agencies. Rather than rely on the advice of the oligarchs whose business interests aligned with other western investors, he dropped anyone who didn’t parrot what he wanted to hear — and who didn’t think an outright invasion of Ukraine was somehow a good idea. For instance, where Deripaska was once considered a “key ally” of his, there is no indication the oligarch was even aware this invasion was in the cards.
To be sure, the oligarchs are still there. And many of them are still sanctioned, as they should be. But their best days — when they still had Putin’s ear and when they could plow their money into any western jurisdiction they wanted — are long gone. That doesn’t mean we should discount comments from Fridman or Deripaska, because even if they don’t enjoy the same influence they once did, their comments are still signals of just how unpopular this war suddenly appears in Russia and of the fact that sanctions have already taken their toll. Whether it’s enough to convince them to move against Putin — or to potentially help convince the military to launch a coup, in a reprise of the Soviet military’s attempt in 1991 — is anyone’s guess. Given the events of the past week, all that was once unlikely seems possible.
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