The good news, if there is any, is that peace talks seem to be underway whereby both sides could come to some sort of agreement to end hostilities. Ukraine, for example, could make a formal pledge not to join NATO in name only, but so tightly knit itself to the alliance and the EU that Russia would think twice about a second invasion. Russia may accept that, knowing its forces would need at this point to rely on heavy weapons, large-scale bombing, hundreds more missile strikes, and much more overall force to truly take over Ukraine.

But here is where things could go from bad to worse. If both sides can’t come to a deal, Putin may decide to truly go all in against Kyiv, determining that a scorched earth policy and winning at any cost is better than taking weeks or months to take the country in full. The level of carnage we would see would be something akin to images from World War II: bombed-out cities, bodies on the streets, and total carnage everywhere.

The world would be horrified — and would demand action against Russia. What would the West do? It’s likely that more weapons would flow into Ukraine on a grand scale, putting more pressure on Putin to respond. More sanctions would then follow, including disconnecting all of Russia’s banks and financial institutions from SWIFT, including entities tied to Russian energy, the lifeblood of Moscow’s economy.