We are currently at a critical juncture in world history. If Putin succeeds in overthrowing democracy in Ukraine and replacing it with a puppet regime, he will have set a terrible precedent for the use of naked force. China will take a cue from this, as it contemplates options for re-incorporating Taiwan. The US and NATO will have been humiliated, and a signal will go out across the world that American promises of support are hollow and cooperation among democracies non-existent.
On the other hand, it is just possible that Putin has made a blunder of monumental proportions. The invasion has triggered massive protests in Russia itself; even propagandists and diplomats promoting the Russian line have been taken aback by the fact that the invasion actually happened. It has unified the Ukrainian people like nothing else, and they have shown incredible willingness to fight back. In military terms, Putin does not have remotely enough forces to control a country of nearly 40 million people, or even a city like Kyiv with 2.8 million inhabitants. NATO has been unified in imposing stiff sanctions, including German agreement to cancel the Nordstream II gas pipeline. The Russian offensive may bog down in house-to-house fighting and produce massive casualties among Ukrainians, but will also lead to large numbers of Russians returning home in body bags. Russians are already astonished that their military investments are being used in the first instance to kill fellow Slavs and destroy a country with which they feel close kinship.
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