This will not be a Cold War

But the real comfort in the comparisons with the Cold War derives from its ending. It did not end in nuclear war. It did not finish with the triumph of totalitarianism. It did not culminate—in its final years—in great bloodshed. The Soviet Union lost the Cold War, capitulating so politely that it simply ceased to exist. It performed the miracle of defeating itself. The Cold War narrative has the satisfying arc of a Hollywood movie, happy ending included.

The conflict between Russia and the West that began this week is terrifying precisely because it does not resemble the Cold War. In fact, it is crucial to work through the distinctions between this evolving conflict and the Cold War in order to address the policy challenges coming to the United States and its allies. If we don’t, we could fail to understand the true dangers Russia currently poses to its neighbors, to the West and to the rest of the world.

These distinctions crystallize around four sets of ideas—the Iron Curtain, the competition of the nuclear era, the nature of diplomacy, and the rise of social media and cyber warfare. Careful consideration of these four issues describes the acutely uncertain terrain of European security and of U.S.-Russian relations in the winter of 2022.