Consider the following scenario. Putin in the coming days takes over all of Ukraine and installs a puppet government to his liking, ensuring that Ukraine will never join NATO. Oil prices hit $120 a barrel, and while new American sanctions sting hard, China is there with enough financial backing and assistance. Between high oil prices and Beijing, Putin gets away with his aggression mostly unscathed.

He won’t be able to gloat for long. Just as the United States learned in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, modern military muscle does not always win against a motivated, nationalistic population that is willing to die to gain its freedom. The US, NATO nations, and others who despise Russia will provide arms, training, finances, and intelligence support to Ukrainian insurgents who will do all they can to bleed Moscow for its aggression. Putin’s victory in Ukraine over the long term will become chaos for Russia. Moscow will suffer for years battling insurgents armed with the latest Western weapons that Putin will have to spend billions of dollars a year trying to counteract.

All this will expose the inherent weaknesses in the Russian state. Russia is getting old fast, its population has been in decline for years, its life expectancy is horrible compared to other European nations, with drug and alcohol abuse all running rampant. All of this will come to a head as oil prices fall when American oil producers come back online and start pumping thanks to the financial incentives that come with $100-a-barrel oil.