Of course, the same dynamic fueled America’s difficulties in Vietnam, as well as the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. In Ukraine, by contrast, the Russians with their cultural proximity to Ukrainians would likely be much more successful in both hunting down insurgents, but also in appealing to “normalcy” among the general population. The example of Crimea, where insurgency has been threatened from time to time, offers a clear and relevant example of where the dog has not barked, so to speak.

Another problem concerns the wider impact of an insurgency on European security, and on NATO, in particular. No doubt, in the event of a major war in Ukraine, all of the country’s other neighbors will be badly afflicted, for example by major refugee flows.

Yet, it could get far worse for them.

Romania and Poland, for example, each now host NATO bases. In the case of insurgency, both countries are likely to become major corridors for weapons to be smuggled through to Ukrainian rebels. In that case, these countries are certain to become “front line” states in the new Cold War with all the attendant costs and risks.