So now Trump is between a rock and a hard place. If he sits for this deposition and answers questions under oath, his words can and will be used against him by the Manhattan DA and potentially other criminal prosecutors. But if he takes the Fifth, that can be used against him in the civil case because the judge can instruct the jury to draw an “adverse inference” against him.

Trump can appeal the judge’s ruling, but unless he changes his strategy, the appeal is unlikely to change the predicament he’s in. If Trump is willing to make it seem like he has significant criminal liability and that an indictment is likely, that could change things. But there is no reason to believe he will do that.

All signs suggest that the Trump (and his son and daughter) will take the Fifth and blame James for having to do so. That might save face for them for now. But in the long run, it will hurt their position if her investigation results in a civil case against them. Right now, it looks like that is a very distinct possibility.