In 2015, the Obama administration was surprised by — but downplayed — Russia’s entry into the Syria conflict, arguing that it would backfire. Instead, the Kremlin used the moment to solidify its power in the region. “What the Obama administration failed to anticipate was the possibility that Russia’s intervention would succeed,” Fix and Kimmage write.

Fast forward to now: The U.S. and Europe are once again warning of “dire consequences” for Russia if it goes all the way. But Putin clearly sees an upside: “If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia. All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities — robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia — will not necessarily be compatible.”