Both parties are oddly in the same box: Their presumed contenders for 2024 (Biden and Trump) may be their weakest, each with negative ratings far exceeding their positives among general election voters. There is also the matter of age. At the end of the next term, Biden will be 86 and Trump will be 82.

Biden’s support has sharply declined since his election, especially among all-important independents. A recent Fox News poll found that only 36% of voters would reelect him and 60% want someone else. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that an unnamed Republican would defeat Biden by 9 percentage points. Of course, there is no such thing as an unnamed candidate. But even against the flesh-and-blood Trump, the current president would face a tough struggle.

Should Biden not run and Vice President Kamala Harris seek the top job, she may be even less electable. The latest Harvard/Harris poll found Trump beating her by 10 points.