What’s going on? Are the separatists trying to provoke a response, so Putin can cite that as an excuse to send the tanks rolling into Donbas—and possibly mount an attack on Kyiv as well, to neutralize what he would label further aggression? Or is Putin stretching out the standoff, hoping that the United States might come up with a better diplomatic deal? Is he continuing to meet with European leaders, hoping to spot and exploit fissures within the NATO alliance?

Putin might have one other disturbing thought to consider. On Saturday, at the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations must be respected—and that includes, he pointedly added, Ukraine. Two weeks earlier, Putin and Xi had met at the start of the Beijing Olympics, then issued a statement declaring their alliance on a wide variety of issues. Putin might have come away from the meeting, assured that, if the U.S. and NATO hit Russia with severe sanctions, he could turn to Xi for support. Wang’s remark might have jolted that confidence.