The backstory: U.S. officials have been releasing intelligence for weeks about alleged Russian plans to build a pretext for war. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken took that to a new level on Wednesday by providing a step-by-step description of how the U.S. expects an invasion to unfold.

That set the stage for Biden’s remarkable address on Friday, in which he said he was “convinced” Putin had decided to launch a full-scale invasion to target the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Moscow has alternated between mocking the dire predictions from Washington — particularly after an invasion target date floated by U.S. officials came and went — and condemning them as “aggression” and “information warfare” against Russia. Putin claims the U.S. is trying to bait him into invading.