In August, the botched pullout from Afghanistan and surprise Taliban entry into Kabul also drove numbers lower. Though many expected this to be a temporary blip, by Labor Day, Biden’s approval rating was firmly underwater and heading down.

The legislative foibles of the fall and winter – the collapse of the Build Back Better bill, the defeat of the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and no progress on immigration reform, minimum wage or student debt relief – sent the message that this White House could not deliver.

Then came inflation. The White House downplayed it, joked about it, said it was temporary, then slammed NBC News anchor Lester Holt for even asking about it.

And as reports of worsening inflation began piling up, Biden touted the supposed “strongest first-year economic track record of any president in the last 50 years.” No wonder Obama adviser David Axelrod says it’s time for Biden to start “painting a credible, realistic picture.”