What has for so long been a point of national pride is now something of a trap. With ineffective vaccines and low protection from previous infections, a large-scale Covid outbreak could threaten vulnerable communities and overwhelm China’s health care system. To address this threat, China is adapting. Responding to the Delta variant in August, the government moved from its initial “zero-Covid” policy of literally pursuing zero cases to its current “dynamic zero-Covid” strategy, which seeks to instead swiftly crack down on outbreaks when they inevitably occur.
That shift in strategy doesn’t necessarily mean a loosening of restrictions. In the short run, the state will continue enforcing strict measures, like snap lockdowns, because unlike many countries—where lockdowns have become politically and economically unfeasible—China is both able to do so and prepared to pay the cost, according to Ben Cowling, chair of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. And in purely economic terms, the policy isn’t too much of a drag on China. A recent report by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group found that the dynamic zero-Covid approach had shaved just 2.6 percent off the Chinese economy in terms of gross domestic product. “China’s been really good at cracking down and getting to zero,” says Cowling. “It’s very disruptive and involves lockdowns, mass testing, and isolation of cases, but that’s affecting a minority of people. If they can limit the spread, I’d say it’s an optimal strategy.”
As with the rest of the world, China is seeking to buy time so it can use science to beat back the virus—but on its own terms. In the coming months, officials are pinning their hopes on developing better, homegrown mRNA vaccines to target Omicron and other variants.
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