There is another possibility, though Biden didn’t mention it. It is conceivable that Putin could decide not to invade Ukraine and start withdrawing his troops—as he claims he is doing—precisely to prove Biden wrong and to make all the U.S. warnings of war seem “hysterical,” as Lavrov recently characterized them. If Putin is still looking for a face-saving way out of this crisis, he could use Biden’s confident prediction of war as the vehicle.

Washington and Moscow have engaged in campaigns of “information warfare” in the past weeks. Putin has issued stream of disinformation; Biden has released highly classified information to reveal Putin’s plans for “false-flag” operations, thus preempting their impact if he put them in motion.

In this context, could it be that Biden’s announcement on Friday was intended as a dare for Putin to prove him wrong—and not invade? We will find out soon.