First, if Putin pulls back now, the Russian military buildup will have energized and solidified Ukrainian nationalism and Kyiv’s desire for a Western orientation. More, he may embolden those in Ukraine who seek a harder break from Moscow. After all, from Kyiv’s point of view, one could squint and see a Russian withdrawal as the plucky Ukrainian nation forcing the Russian bear back into its cave.

Second, NATO’s eastern flank has been, and will likely continue to be, reinforced with troops from the United States, Britain, and France. It has been posited for months that Putin’s ultimate goal was to drive NATO back to its pre-1997 positions in Central Europe. Whatever Putin chooses to do now, there’s little hope of that for some time. Going forward, the Baltic nations and Poland are likely to receive significantly more attention from their more powerful Western NATO allies than they would have if Putin had not undertaken his adventurism.

Third, Russia’s gunpoint diplomacy with Ukraine has caused the Swedes and Finns to openly consider whether they should join their Baltic and Scandinavian neighbors under the Western defense umbrella. And while, short of an actual ground invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are unlikely to formally apply for NATO membership, it does Putin no good for Northern Europeans to see Moscow as a malign and aggressive actor.