In the absence of Pax Americana, would the United Nations be capable of enforcing rules of the road, like freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, over which as much as one-third of the world’s commercial traffic passes? How about regional alliances, like the European Union or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations? Don’t count on it.
This has some obvious knock-on effects. It’s an invitation to predatory behavior — precisely of the kind we’re witnessing on Ukraine’s borders and also seeing signs of over the Taiwan Strait. And predatory behavior is rarely satisfied. A Russia that possesses more of Ukraine or a China that seizes Taiwan will each want more. They’ll be in a stronger position to get it.
Another obvious consequence: There will be no peace dividend in a post-Pax Americana world. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the United States today spends historically little on defense — about 3.7 percent of gross domestic product, compared to more than 5 percent in the last year of the Carter administration. But military spending would have to return to Cold War levels for an era in which core U.S. interests were constantly threatened by hostile and confident powers.
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