At present, the accumulated forces on the border are insufficient for a large-scale operation aimed at capturing all or a significant part of Ukraine. Therefore, predictions about the probability of such scenarios in the near future cannot be confirmed.

Moreover, we believe that such scenarios are unlikely in the foreseeable future due to the factors we have described in our previous article. In short, there is currently no active action in Russia to prepare the hundreds of thousands of troops needed for such a large-scale offensive.

At the moment, there are also no significant measures to create strategic reserves and mobilization on the basis of the Russian army’s centers for mobilization deployment.

In addition, such an operation will have extremely negative consequences for Russia. If the formula for a failed attack on Ukraine includes non-military components, international isolation and sanctions, the outcome of such an operation will be catastrophic for all of Russia, not just the Kremlin.