The survey, conducted in January and February, found that 45% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters wanted to see the party renominate Biden in 2024, while 51% preferred a different candidate. There’s more support in the party for Biden among voters 45 and older (52% of whom want to see him as the nominee again), voters of color (55%) and voters without a college degree (51%). There’s also a gap between the 48% of self-identified Democrats who want to see Biden renominated and the third of Democratic-leaning independents who felt the same. The 2024 support for Biden is concentrated among his most ardent backers in the party. While 70% of Democratic voters who strongly approve of the way he’s handling the job said they’d like to see him renominated, that drops to just 35% among Democrats who said they approve moderately.

Across the aisle, Republican and Republican-leaning voters are about evenly split between wanting their party to nominate Trump again (50%) or wanting a different candidate (49%). A majority of Republicans (54%) favored Trump, compared with 38% of Republican-leaning independents. Continued support for the former president within the GOP is also particularly strong among White voters without a college degree (60%) and those who falsely claim Biden’s 2020 victory was illegitimate (64%).