The problem with the above analysis is that it just isn’t true. European countries were less likely to mask young children because the European CDC wrote guidance at the beginning of the pandemic recommending against the use of masks for children under 12, citing the possibility of developmental, social, or psychological impairments they might cause children. The European CDC backed up this recommendation with existing literature. Nothing about European guidance tied school mask mandates to the rate of vaccine uptake in the adult population; instead, it was based on observations about transmission at schools, the nature of the virus, and child development.

But American doctors who cannot describe an off-ramp for childhood masking have to invent a reason ad hoc. If childhood masking were connected to adult vaccination rates, then at some point in the last year after the vaccine became available, a public-health official might have articulated this idea and even given an estimate as to when it would be safe. This never happened, however. Even now, there is no suggested off-ramp for childhood masking; it will be a political decision, not one driven by a public-health outcome.