A lawsuit filed in January in North Carolina provides a model for future proceedings against Trump. A group of registered voters have invoked the 14th Amendment to disqualify Rep. Madison Cawthorn from running again for a seat in the House in 2022, based on his support for the January 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol. They are relying on a provision of state law that authorizes them to raise a “reasonable suspicion” that a would-be candidate is legally unqualified for the office he is seeking. If the voters can convince the state’s election authorities that their “suspicions” are reasonable, the burden of proof will shift to Cawthorn — who must establish, “by a preponderance of the evidence,” that he is eligible. The congressman will have a full and fair opportunity to demonstrate, before an impartial fact-finder, that the charges against him don’t have the necessary support.
Trump’s case is no different — except that he will be facing similar challenges in all 50 states. While not all states will address this issue the way North Carolina does, they all require their election authorities to make an evidence-based decision about whether candidates are eligible to run for a particular office. It isn’t necessary to delve into these complexities, however, to know that once Trump announces his candidacy, his lawyers will be confronting multiple challenges to his qualifications on a nationwide basis.
One thing is clear. It is virtually impossible that all 50 states will come to the same decision. Instead, some election authorities will disqualify him while others will conclude that the facts are insufficiently compelling to justify his exclusion under the 14th Amendment.
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